Nationwide reports that house prices moved by 0.7% in the month of March nearly wiping out the 0.9% drop reported in February.
Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist commented:
“The price of a typical UK property rose by a
seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-on-month (m/m) in
March, largely reversing the 0.8% m/m fall measured
in February. The smoother three month on three
month rate of inflation edged down further from 1.8%
in February to 1.6% in March. At £164,519, the
average price of a typical property is 9.0% higher
than a year earlier.
“The last two months are consistent with a relatively
flat profile for house prices, and in line with the
recent drops seen in buyer enquiries and house sales.
Preliminary figures show that the number of loans
taken out for house purchases failed to recover from
January’s large dip (chart 1), suggesting that
weakness in house sales at the start of the year may
have been due to more than just the snowy weather.
With greater than usual political and economic
uncertainty ahead of the upcoming general election,
potential homebuyers are proceeding cautiously. At
the same time, the number of homes for sale has not
increased appreciably, meaning that the impact of
lower buyer activity on house prices has not been too
negative. If this trend continues, we are likely to see
relatively few properties changing hands, but with
prices fairly stable.
Will stamp duty holiday boost the market?
“The Budget brought with it the surprise
announcement that for the next two years, the nil
stamp duty threshold will be raised from £125,000 to
£250,000 for first-time buyers. Based on
Nationwide’s sub-index for first-time buyers, this will
produce a savings of £1,368 for the average new
entrant into the property market. At a national level,
the vast majority of first-time buyers should benefit
from the holiday, though with the average London
house price at £243,163 for first-time purchasers, a
significant number of new buyers in the capital will
miss out on the savings.
“For first-time buyers, this initiative effectively
represents a larger and longer version of the stamp
duty holiday in place between September 2008 and
the end of December 2009 for properties bought for
less than £175,000. Looking back on the previous tax
holiday, the evidence on its success in boosting
transactions is mixed. Intuitively, one might expect a
stamp duty holiday to boost total house purchase
activity, with a disproportionately greater increase in
transactions at the lower-priced end of the housing
chain.
“Over the course of the last holiday, there was indeed
a modest increase in house purchase transactions,
with most of the pick-up seen during the second half
of the exemption period (chart 2). However,
transactions remained well below normal levels
throughout and it is not clear how much of the pickup
was attributable to other factors such as the
record cut in interest rates. In addition, there was no
appreciable increase in transactions at the lower end
of the chain. The only exception to this was the last
month of the holiday (December 2009), when buyers
standing to benefit from the exemption rushed to
complete their purchase before the end of the year
(chart 3). This rush to complete is similar to what
happened during the stamp duty holiday introduced
in the early 1990s housing downturn.
“We of course do not know what the housing market
would have looked like without last year’s stamp duty
holiday, and it may well be that the level of
transactions would have stayed even lower for longer.
Undoubtedly this new measure will be welcome relief
for aspiring first-time buyers. However, based on
past experience it may not be enough on its own for
the housing market to make a full recovery.”