Boxing Day comes early for China

That was the week in property, by Mike Hoffa
I’m a big fan of Christmas, always have been.
Even when the magic of getting new toys and believing in Santa Claus wears off it’s a great chance to catch up with family and friends, take a bit of time out and generally enjoy yourself for a few weeks. And despite the harsh economic times we’re currently in, everyone seems to be getting into the Christmas spirit and remembering that it’s not about spending loads of dosh on presents, but taking a bit of time to have fun and relax.
Sadly, like most people I tend to do my fair share of overindulgence at Christmas. By this point my liver is normally beginning to feel like it needs a holiday and the old belt needs to be loosened up a notch or two. It’s like for a few weeks we just forget about the concept of eating and drinking in moderation and treat it like an all-out sprint race to consume as much as humanly possible.
“For China, it sounds a lot like Boxing day has come early this year.”
Then comes boxing day, always a slight anti-climax as we realise that some calorie controlling might be in order. Like everyone else I keep the party rolling until New Year, but somewhere in the back of your mind you know that hangover is just round the corner and it’s going to be a miserable January of cutting back.
For China, it sounds a lot like Boxing day has come early this year. As if the news wasn’t bleak enough for the Western economies, with a double-dip recession all but a foregone conclusion now, it looks like China’s bubble might have finally popped. The Telegraph picks up on the festive theme, reporting on the news with a piece entitled ‘China’s epic hangover begins’ and it doesn’t make good reading.
According to Homelink, a property website reporting on China, new house prices in Beijing fell 35% in November from the previous month. Yes – you did read that correctly, thirty-five percent. That’s not good, in fact it’s Bad with a capital B. Bluntly, it makes the turbulence we’ve seen in the UK property market seem like a storm in a teacup. If the figures are to be believed, China’s property market has lost as much in one month as we’ve lost in three years. Ouch.
“…the scale of lending in China (in GDP terms) is approximately double that of Japan prior to the Nikkei bubble bursting over 20 years ago…”
It’s not just China either, all of the high growth emerging markets are starting to feel the strain. Or, as the Telegraph reports from Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards, “The BRICs are falling like bricks.” The pace of the unravelling is a worry and it doesn’t bode well for the future. To put this in perspective, the scale of lending in China (in GDP terms) is approximately double that of Japan prior to the Nikkei bubble bursting over 20 years ago – and Japan is still recovering.
It looks like the global recession might finally be coming to China (and other emerging markets). Don’t underestimate the impact this might have on the UK property market, would be my advice, and keep a close eye on where you park your money.
So drink and be merry, enjoy the festive season and overindulge while you can, because a global hangover is on its way and it’s going to take more than Alka Seltzer to sort this one out.
About the author:
Mike Hoffa has been working in the property sector for more years than he cares to remember, as a tenant, first time buyer, second time buyer, landlord, adviser and general trouble maker. He keeps his real identity fiercely secret, but some say he can often be found at the back of property auctions howling, but only when a full moon is out. He’s also rumoured to be of average height, weight, ethnicity and class, which he claims accounts for his inability to be politically correct or wear pastel coloured cardigans.
Mike’s question of the week: Has recession just found the emerging markets?
Essential Information Group November Auction Market Comment
Wednesday, December 21st, 2011Our dear friend David Sandeman at EIG has all the stats at his fingertips for each sale at Auction in the UK and he has some interesting observations on November’s trading.
Whilst the media are reporting a decline in the number of house sales, last month saw a 10.4% overall increase in lots sold at auction very close to the rolling year increase of 9.6%. In addition the residential increase for the rolling year has been 10.1%. The overall percentage sold was 63.9% which was down from the rolling year average of 73.2%, but up on October 2010 which was 59.1%. The gradual improvement in the results that we have seen for the majority of months this year continues.
As we have said before at makeoffer there is no point reinventing the wheel so we are delighted to present David’s analysis below for you to digest and use to your benefit.
We are sure that you are used to seeing much of EIG’s information as may auction houses in the UK use his services.
National Auction Analysis
Total
Residential
Commercial
Regional Auction Analysis
East Anglia
East Midlands
London
North-East
North-West
North-West Home Counties
Scotland
South-East Home Counties
South-West
Wales
West Midlands
Yorkshire and The Humber
Tags: makeoffer.co.uk, Property, Property Auctions, Property Market Comment, UK Property Market
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