Archive for December, 2011

Essential Information Group November Auction Market Comment

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

Our dear friend David Sandeman at EIG has all the stats at his fingertips for each sale at Auction in the UK and he has some interesting observations on November’s trading.

Whilst the media are reporting a decline in the number of house sales, last month saw a 10.4% overall increase in lots sold at auction very close to the rolling year increase of 9.6%. In addition the residential increase for the rolling year has been 10.1%. The overall percentage sold was 63.9% which was down from the rolling year average of 73.2%, but up on October 2010 which was 59.1%. The gradual improvement in the results that we have seen for the majority of months this year continues.

As we have said before at makeoffer there is no point reinventing the wheel so we are delighted to present David’s analysis below for you to digest and use to your benefit.

We are sure that you are used to seeing much of EIG’s information as may auction houses in the UK use his services.

 

National Auction Analysis

Overall the amount raised was up 28%, though as the tables below show this was largely due to a 174% increase in the value of commercial lots sold. Having noted that, the lots sold, percentage sold and amount raised for three periods in all three tables show an increase when compared with the same periods last year. A steady and continuing trend.

 

Total

  Last Month Last Quarter Last Year
  November 2011 November 2010 Increase September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase December 2010 – November 2011 December 2009 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 2,164 2,120 2.1% 9,751 9,747 0.0% 32,478 31,474 3.2%
Lots Sold 1,382 1,252 10.4% 6,971 6,341 9.9% 23,764 21,678 9.6%
Percent Sold 63.9% 59.1% 8.1% 71.5% 65.1% 9.8% 73.2% 68.9% 6.2%
Total Raised £166,538,266 £129,554,068 28.5% £931,234,941 £845,756,484 10.1% £3,426,988,770 £3,305,665,931 3.7%

Residential

  Last Month Last Quarter Last Year
  November 2011 November 2010 Increase September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase December 2010 – November 2011 December 2009 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 1,718 1,838 -6.5% 7,670 8,019 -4.4% 25,935 25,142 3.2%
Lots Sold 1,098 1,078 1.9% 5,505 5,201 5.8% 18,970 17,234 10.1%
Percent Sold 63.9% 58.7% 8.9% 71.8% 64.9% 10.6% 73.1% 68.5% 6.7%
Total Raised £113,617,355 £110,302,918 3.0% £638,589,575 £626,946,934 1.9% £2,278,828,291 £2,197,544,887 3.7%

Commercial

  Last Month Last Quarter Last Year
  November 2011 November 2010 Increase September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase December 2010 – November 2011 December 2009 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 440 282 56.0% 2,054 1,728 18.9% 6,543 6,329 3.4%
Lots Sold 284 174 63.2% 1,453 1,140 27.5% 4,794 4,444 7.9%
Percent Sold 64.5% 61.7% 4.5% 70.7% 66% 7.1% 73.3% 70.2% 4.4%
Total Raised £52,920,911 £19,251,150 174.9% £291,706,866 £218,809,550 33.3% £1,148,160,479 £1,108,121,044 3.6%

 

Regional Auction Analysis

As is usually the case, variations across all the measurable parameters can be seen across the regions.

East Anglia

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 264 282 -6.4%
Lots Sold 208 202 3.0%
Percent Sold 78.8% 71.6% 10.1%
Total Raised £31,093,500 £27,189,950 14.4%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 189 233 -18.9%
Lots Sold 152 166 -8.4%
Percent Sold 80.4% 71.2% 12.9%
Total Raised £21,630,500 £18,242,250 18.6%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 75 49 53.1%
Lots Sold 56 36 55.6%
Percent Sold 74.7% 73.5% 1.6%
Total Raised £9,463,000 £8,947,700 5.8%

East Midlands

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 766 789 -2.9%
Lots Sold 574 536 7.1%
Percent Sold 74.9% 67.9% 10.3%
Total Raised £64,922,612 £53,869,070 20.5%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 564 643 -12.3%
Lots Sold 426 442 -3.6%
Percent Sold 75.5% 68.7% 9.9%
Total Raised £38,024,062 £40,826,320 -6.9%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 202 146 38.4%
Lots Sold 148 94 57.4%
Percent Sold 73.3% 64.4% 13.8%
Total Raised £26,898,550 £13,042,750 106.2%

London

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 807 985 -18.1%
Lots Sold 631 722 -12.6%
Percent Sold 78.2% 73.3% 6.7%
Total Raised £184,151,175 £235,173,800 -21.7%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 708 858 -17.5%
Lots Sold 554 626 -11.5%
Percent Sold 78.2% 73% 7.1%
Total Raised £140,605,075 £182,761,750 -23.1%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 99 127 -22.0%
Lots Sold 77 96 -19.8%
Percent Sold 77.8% 75.6% 2.9%
Total Raised £43,546,100 £52,412,050 -16.9%

North-East

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 654 830 -21.2%
Lots Sold 476 405 17.5%
Percent Sold 72.8% 48.8% 49.2%
Total Raised £37,960,361 £32,471,002 16.9%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 589 775 -24.0%
Lots Sold 432 379 14.0%
Percent Sold 73.3% 48.9% 49.9%
Total Raised £31,232,061 £27,015,502 15.6%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 65 55 18.2%
Lots Sold 44 26 69.2%
Percent Sold 67.7% 47.3% 43.1%
Total Raised £6,728,300 £5,455,500 23.3%

North-West

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 1,644 1,571 4.6%
Lots Sold 1,137 989 15.0%
Percent Sold 69.2% 63% 9.8%
Total Raised £99,700,101 £93,178,694 7.0%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 1,262 1,196 5.5%
Lots Sold 878 761 15.4%
Percent Sold 69.6% 63.6% 9.4%
Total Raised £63,795,835 £63,569,744 0.4%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 382 375 1.9%
Lots Sold 259 228 13.6%
Percent Sold 67.8% 60.8% 11.5%
Total Raised £35,904,266 £29,608,950 21.3%

North-West Home Counties

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 407 402 1.2%
Lots Sold 310 286 8.4%
Percent Sold 76.2% 71.1% 7.2%
Total Raised £72,374,995 £55,166,150 31.2%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 322 329 -2.1%
Lots Sold 251 238 5.5%
Percent Sold 78% 72.3% 7.9%
Total Raised £45,375,495 £40,158,650 13.0%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 85 73 16.4%
Lots Sold 59 48 22.9%
Percent Sold 69.4% 65.8% 5.5%
Total Raised £26,999,500 £15,007,500 79.9%

Scotland

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 240 236 1.7%
Lots Sold 101 138 -26.8%
Percent Sold 42.1% 58.5% -28.0%
Total Raised £7,874,866 £9,578,275 -17.8%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 164 195 -15.9%
Lots Sold 69 115 -40.0%
Percent Sold 42.1% 59% -28.6%
Total Raised £3,346,366 £6,775,175 -50.6%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 76 41 85.4%
Lots Sold 32 23 39.1%
Percent Sold 42.1% 56.1% -25.0%
Total Raised £4,528,500 £2,803,100 61.6%

South-East Home Counties

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 1,038 1,086 -4.4%
Lots Sold 780 766 1.8%
Percent Sold 75.1% 70.5% 6.5%
Total Raised £137,751,379 £116,566,745 18.2%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 803 868 -7.5%
Lots Sold 606 622 -2.6%
Percent Sold 75.5% 71.7% 5.3%
Total Raised £88,697,129 £84,925,945 4.4%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 235 218 7.8%
Lots Sold 174 144 20.8%
Percent Sold 74% 66.1% 12.0%
Total Raised £49,054,250 £31,640,800 55.0%

South-West

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 928 775 19.7%
Lots Sold 635 507 25.2%
Percent Sold 68.4% 65.4% 4.6%
Total Raised £92,390,901 £66,084,300 39.8%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 663 591 12.2%
Lots Sold 431 361 19.4%
Percent Sold 65% 61.1% 6.4%
Total Raised £59,302,901 £45,874,250 29.3%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 265 184 44.0%
Lots Sold 204 146 39.7%
Percent Sold 77% 79.3% -2.9%
Total Raised £33,088,000 £20,210,050 63.7%

Wales

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 673 794 -15.2%
Lots Sold 470 504 -6.7%
Percent Sold 69.8% 63.5% 9.9%
Total Raised £36,812,996 £39,224,756 -6.1%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 525 631 -16.8%
Lots Sold 370 398 -7.0%
Percent Sold 70.5% 63.1% 11.7%
Total Raised £28,103,846 £26,403,206 6.4%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 148 163 -9.2%
Lots Sold 100 106 -5.7%
Percent Sold 67.6% 65% 4.0%
Total Raised £8,709,150 £12,821,550 -32.1%

West Midlands

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 1,061 919 15.5%
Lots Sold 793 569 39.4%
Percent Sold 74.7% 61.9% 20.7%
Total Raised £90,664,000 £57,246,546 58.4%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 795 763 4.2%
Lots Sold 600 473 26.8%
Percent Sold 75.5% 62% 21.8%
Total Raised £58,938,500 £42,403,996 39.0%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 266 156 70.5%
Lots Sold 193 96 101.0%
Percent Sold 72.6% 61.5% 18.0%
Total Raised £31,725,500 £14,842,550 113.7%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Total
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 1,086 934 16.3%
Lots Sold 771 663 16.3%
Percent Sold 71% 71% 0.0%
Total Raised £69,287,055 £57,233,446 21.1%
Residential
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 930 793 17.3%
Lots Sold 664 566 17.3%
Percent Sold 71.4% 71.4% 0.0%
Total Raised £54,225,305 £45,216,396 19.9%
Commercial
  September 2011 – November 2011 September 2010 – November 2010 Increase
Lots Offered 156 141 10.6%
Lots Sold 107 97 10.3%
Percent Sold 68.6% 68.8% -0.3%
Total Raised £15,061,750 £12,017,050 25.3%

Mike Hoffa says “Boxing Day comes early for China”

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Boxing Day comes early for China

Mike Hoffa logo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That was the week in property, by Mike Hoffa

I’m a big fan of Christmas, always have been.

Even when the magic of getting new toys and believing in Santa Claus wears off it’s a great chance to catch up with family and friends, take a bit of time out and generally enjoy yourself for a few weeks. And despite the harsh economic times we’re currently in, everyone seems to be getting into the Christmas spirit and remembering that it’s not about spending loads of dosh on presents, but taking a bit of time to have fun and relax.

Sadly, like most people I tend to do my fair share of overindulgence at Christmas. By this point my liver is normally beginning to feel like it needs a holiday and the old belt needs to be loosened up a notch or two. It’s like for a few weeks we just forget about the concept of eating and drinking in moderation and treat it like an all-out sprint race to consume as much as humanly possible.

 

“For China, it sounds a lot like Boxing day has come early this year.”

 

Then comes boxing day, always a slight anti-climax as we realise that some calorie controlling might be in order. Like everyone else I keep the party rolling until New Year, but somewhere in the back of your mind you know that hangover is just round the corner and it’s going to be a miserable January of cutting back.

For China, it sounds a lot like Boxing day has come early this year. As if the news wasn’t bleak enough for the Western economies, with a double-dip recession all but a foregone conclusion now, it looks like China’s bubble might have finally popped. The Telegraph picks up on the festive theme, reporting on the news with a piece entitled ‘China’s epic hangover begins’ and it doesn’t make good reading.

According to Homelink, a property website reporting on China, new house prices in Beijing fell 35% in November from the previous month. Yes – you did read that correctly, thirty-five percent. That’s not good, in fact it’s Bad with a capital B. Bluntly, it makes the turbulence we’ve seen in the UK property market seem like a storm in a teacup. If the figures are to be believed, China’s property market has lost as much in one month as we’ve lost in three years. Ouch.

 

“…the scale of lending in China (in GDP terms) is approximately double that of Japan prior to the Nikkei bubble bursting over 20 years ago…”

 

It’s not just China either, all of the high growth emerging markets are starting to feel the strain. Or, as the Telegraph reports from Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards, “The BRICs are falling like bricks.” The pace of the unravelling is a worry and it doesn’t bode well for the future. To put this in perspective, the scale of lending in China (in GDP terms) is approximately double that of Japan prior to the Nikkei bubble bursting over 20 years ago – and Japan is still recovering.

It looks like the global recession might finally be coming to China (and other emerging markets). Don’t underestimate the impact this might have on the UK property market, would be my advice, and keep a close eye on where you park your money.

So drink and be merry, enjoy the festive season and overindulge while you can, because a global hangover is on its way and it’s going to take more than Alka Seltzer to sort this one out.

About the author:

Mike Hoffa has been working in the property sector for more years than he cares to remember, as a tenant, first time buyer, second time buyer, landlord, adviser and general trouble maker. He keeps his real identity fiercely secret, but some say he can often be found at the back of property auctions howling, but only when a full moon is out. He’s also rumoured to be of average height, weight, ethnicity and class, which he claims accounts for his inability to be politically correct or wear pastel coloured cardigans.

Mike’s question of the week: Has recession just found the emerging markets?

Mike Hoffa says “Britain pulls out, Europe stands isolated”

Saturday, December 10th, 2011

Britain pulls out, Europe stands isolated

Mike Hoffa logo 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That was the week in property, by Mike Hoffa

Well I couldn’t really write anything this week without mentioning the gradual unfolding of the European Union and using a headline that outlines our British defiance.

So Cameron has finally used the power of veto to recreate that famous Agincourt moment and stick two fingers up at the French, but will it prove to be his Waterloo?

Probably not, I reckon. Despite all the criticism he is now getting (and seriously, what other country’s population is criticising its leader right now for standing up for them?) we’re better off out of the mess that the European Union has become. This vision of a united Europe just doesn’t work across a geography that contains such cultural and financial diversity, in my opinion. So we’ve finally found out what happens when you try to mix clogs, berets, lederhosen and Savile row suits (whilst living on a diet of kebabs and Ouzo)– you end up looking pretty daft, have terrible breath and no-one wants to do business with you.

 

“…we’ve finally found out what happens when you try to mix clogs, berets, lederhosen and Savile row suits – you end up looking pretty daft…”

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not really a “Euro sceptic” as they like to call them, in fact I’m all for anything that makes good business sense for the UK, but I’m afraid getting more embroiled with Europe doesn’t make any sense at all right now. And I wouldn’t get too worried about any damage from being “left out”, as the last time we stood alone it turned out rather well (although the Americans did help us a little bit).

Funnily enough, the Euro entered circulation as a currency in 2002, exactly seven years before it all started to unravel – so has the seven year itch finally put paid to the European love affair?

A report in the Mail Online this week suggests that the seven year itch might also apply to the property market, with people getting bored with their current home after, on average, seven years and four months. The report, based on research from Zoopla, goes on to clarify that the major reason for starting to cheat on your domicile and window shopping for a better one is a “dissatisfied female”, who has developed house envy. I can just imagine all those men being nagged into house hunting…

And it’s worse if you’re younger, with the average figures representing a divide between those in the 25-34 age group, who typically get bored with their house after only four years, and those over 55 who are normally happy in their home for almost ten years.

 

“…the seven year itch might also apply to the property market, with people getting bored with their current home after, on average, seven years and four months.”

 

Of course, such analysis will clearly be skewed by the fact that younger people will have issues such as growing families to deal with, but it would be interesting to see if these results are mirrored in other countries – or is it just us Brits who are obsessed with continually moving up the property ladder?

But I wouldn’t worry about the Euro meltdown leaving Britain proverbially homeless. In fact, I reckon we’ve just got bored with our dodgy European housemates (after much nagging by our wives) and decided to move out to our own place, in the process getting our foot on the first rung of the ladder to economic recovery.

About the author:

Mike Hoffa has been working in the property sector for more years than he cares to remember, as a tenant, first time buyer, second time buyer, landlord, adviser and general trouble maker. He keeps his real identity fiercely secret, but some say he can often be found at the back of property auctions howling, but only when a full moon is out. He’s also rumoured to be of average height, weight, ethnicity and class, which he claims accounts for his inability to be politically correct or wear pastel coloured cardigans.

Mike’s question of the week: Has Cameron boldly got Britain back on track?

Auction House London November Results

Sunday, December 4th, 2011
Lot
No.
Address Result
1 Flat 606, Cavalier House, 46-50 Uxbridge Road, Ealing, London, W5 2SU Sold for £291,000.
2 Flat 3, 142 Katherine Road, East Ham, London, E6 1ER Sold for £5,100.
3 Flat 6, 16 Montrell Road, Streatham, London, SW2 4QD Unsold, the last bid was £149,000 and is available at £150,000.
4 14 Wellington Road, Croydon, Surrey, CR0 2SH Withdrawn Prior to Auction.
5 22 Glenesk Road, Eltham, London, SE9 1AG Sold for £564,500.
6 27 Woodfield Rise, Bushey, Hertfordshire, WD23 4QR Sold for £280,500.
7 6 Spafield Street, London, EC1R 4QB Withdrawn Prior to Auction.
8 8 Newington Green Road, Islington, London, N1 4RX Unsold, the last bid was £65,000. Please refer to Auctioneer for Reserve.
9 Flat 1, 1 Hampstead Gardens, Golders Green, London, NW11 7EU Sold after auction for an undisclosed amount.
10 37 Portnall Road, Maida Vale, London, W9 3BA Withdrawn Prior to Auction.
11 Land adj 81/83 Hove Avenue, Walthamstow, London, E17 7NG Sold for £23,000.
12 82 Anthony Road, Borehamwood, Hertfordshire, WD6 4NB Sold for £256,000.
13 Flat 5, Everett House, 94 Hornsey Road, Holloway, London, N7 7NL Sold after auction for an undisclosed amount.
14 19 Crisp Road, Hammersmith, London, W6 9RL Unsold, the last bid was £199,000. Please refer to Auctioneer for Reserve.
15 Archers Dart, Coppice Hatch, Harlow, Essex, CM18 6SL Unsold, the last bid was £47,000. Please refer to Auctioneer for Reserve.
16 Flat 2, Orchard Court, Mimms Hall Road, Potters Bar, Hertfordshire, EN6 3DW Withdrawn Prior to Auction.
17 Flat 6, Orchard Court, Mimms Hall Road, Potters Bar, Hertfordshire, EN6 3DW Withdrawn Prior to Auction.
18 1 Parsons Croft, Rectory Lane, Hever, Edenbridge, Kent, TN8 7LH Unsold, the last bid was £230,000. Please refer to Auctioneer for Reserve.
19 Flat 2, 1 St. James’s Park, Croydon, Surrey, CR0 2UT Withdrawn Prior to Auction.
20 36 Lorne Road, Stroud Green, London, N4 3RT Sold for £500,000.
21 3A Dacre Gardens, Brandram Road, Lewisham, London, SE13 5RY Sold after auction for an undisclosed amount.
22 115 Park Lane East, Tipton, West Midlands, DY4 8RE Sold for £114,000.
23 144 Ramuz Drive, Westcliff-on-Sea, Essex, SS0 9JL Sold for £131,750.
24 12 Sweyns Lease, East Boldre, Brockenhurst, Hampshire, SO42 7WQ Withdrawn Prior to Auction.
25 20 Mount Olive Court, 22 Green Lane, Hanwell, London, W7 2PT Sold Prior to auction, for an undisclosed amount.
26 75 Maphoner Road, Mullaghbawn, Newry, County Down, BT35 9TR Withdrawn Prior to Auction.